The recent blocage of the Suez canal https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Pages/default.aspx once again showed us the fragility of maritime transport and the dependence of world trade on a few routes
What is the problem
What happened was that a 400 meter giant cargo ship (https://www.evergreen-group.com ), while passing through the Suez canal, turned sideways and got stuck. The ship completely blocked up-stream and down-stream trafic, stranding hundreds of ships. It is impossible to free the ship with tugboats. Carryin 22,000 containers, it is the largest of its kind.
Hence a major route where 10% of world trade passes is now out of action. Suez canal, while not cheap (USD 400,000 transit fee) is the fastest route from Asia to Europe. When the canal was first constructed , the aim of the French was to shorten the route for European manufactured goods to Asia. However, in the last 30 years, the trafic has grown from Asia to Europe, and lessened from Europe to Asia.
Description of current trends in world trade
Phones, automotive parts, pharmaceutical products, semiconductors, toys, petrol, chemicals are only a few of the products that pass through the canal. The sheer volume and types of merchandise that Europe and America import from Asia is frightening. Having opted to jettison their manfacturing base for a service economy, the West has become overly dependent on Asia (China, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, etc) to keep their consumer oriented economies running. Taiwanese chip company TSMC alone manufactures 50% of total world semiconductor supply. Western leaders have taken notice : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-01-25/the-world-is-dangerously-dependent-on-taiwan-for-semiconductors
The blocage of the Suez canal , in a very short time can paralyze whole sectors in Europe, increase oil prices, cause inflation. The Western economies have for the past decades turned a blind eye to strategic investments. They instead outsourced essential chunks of their economies to Asia. And all in the name of globalisation and increased world trade to boost emerging market economies.
A simple accident has shown how dangerous this is. Alternative routes exist, around the Cape of Good Hope, or thru the Arctic passage in Russia (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/03/25/russia-floats-arctic-shipping-route-as-viable-suez-canal-alternative-a73369), but each with its own isssues. One route takes 50% more time, the other is at the mercy of Russia.
Historical pesrpective
History is full of examples, either naval blockades or closures of waterways :
During US Civil war Union navy blockaded the South
During the Napoleonic wars, Great Britain blockaded the continent to weaken the French.
The Suez canal was closed for 8 years after the 1967 6 day war between Israel and Arab states,
The Dardanelles was closed during WW I, cutting off Allied aid to the Russian empire, eventually paving the way for the Bolshevic revolution
The recent covid crisis and this latest blocage of the Suez canal has shown the follies of ever increasing world trade. This is not only an economic /strategic danger, but also an environmental disaster with the carbon footprint of these giant ships.
How can we alleviate this problem
It is not too late to try to reverse this over dependance on trade, and switch to more locally sourced economies, but with a sacrifice in our click and buy attitudes and foregoing our insatiable thirst for consumes goods.